A Deep Learning Approach for Enhanced Real-Time Prediction of Winter Road Surface Temperatures in High-Altitude Mountain Areas

Abstract

Low temperatures and icing in winter are significant factors that severely affect highway safety and traffic mobility. To enhance the precision and reliability of real-time winter road surface temperature (RST) prediction, a short-term prediction model is developed that harnesses both feature selection and deep learning. Leveraging meteorological data from a mountain highway in Yunnan, China, the key environmental variables affecting road surface temperature were first extracted using a random forest (RF) model for feature selection. These features were then combined with RST data to construct multiple groups of input variable combinations for the prediction model. A short-term prediction model with a 10-minute update frequency was built using a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), namely RF-LSTM. The best input variable combination and preset parameters for the prediction model were determined through comparative testing with prevalent machine learning models, and the transferability of the prediction model was verified. The results showed that the best input variable combination for the RF-LSTM prediction model was road surface temperature and air temperature. The model recognised that the short-term RST was affected by long and short-term memory characteristics within a two-hour timeframe. When compared to the RF model, backpropagation (BP) neural network model and the standard LSTM model, the proposed model reduces prediction errors by 59.15%, 31.10% and 20.26%, respectively, while the prediction accuracy is 99.13% within an error margin of ±0.5℃. On the verification dataset, the proposed model maintains its time transferability with an average prediction absolute error of 0.0478. In all, the proposed model not only achieves a higher level of precision in real-time RST predictions but also ensures a more consistent and reliable performance under the challenging conditions of high altitude and mountainous terrain, offering enhanced support for traffic safety and road maintenance decision-making.

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