The performance of a traffic system tends to improve as the percentage of connected vehicles (CV) in total flow increases. However, due to low CV penetration in the current vehicle market, improving the traffic signal operation remains a challenging task. In an effort to improve the performance of CV applications at low penetration rates, the authors develop a new method to estimate the speeds and positions of non-connected vehicles (NCV) along a signalized intersection. The algorithm uses CV information and initial speeds and positions of the NCVs from loop detectors and estimates the forward movements of the NCVs using the Gipps’ car-following model. Calibration parameters of the Gipps’ model were determined using a solver optimization tool. The estimation algorithm was applied to a previously developed connected vehicle signal control (CVSC) strategy on two different isolated intersections. Simulations in VISSIM showed the estimation accuracy higher for the intersection with less lanes. Estimation error increased with the decrease in CV penetration and decreased with the decrease in traffic demand. The CVSC strategy with 40% and higher CV penetration (for Intersection 1) and with 20% and higher CV penetration (for Intersection 2) showed better performance in reducing travel time delay and number of stops than the EPICS adaptive control.
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