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Promet - Traffic&Transportation journal

Accelerating Discoveries in Traffic Science

Accelerating Discoveries in Traffic Science

Articles

Vol. 28 No. 4 (2016)
Published on 31.08.2016

Robert Rijavec
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4

Zhongzhen Yang, Chunyu Gao, Yixuan Li
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4
The paper analyzes the current state of the Chinese cruise market and presents the idea of building a business model of coastal cruising. The cruise demand of middle-income families, which includes the desired travel days, ports of call, is surveyed. The data of the previous non-cruise travels and the data of future cruises of middle-income families are used to develop a model designed to identify the maximum passenger volume with minimum operating costs while taking cruise itineraries and schedules into account. A matrix coding genetic algorithm was designed to solve the model. The case study found that a voyage of 4.79 days results in equilibrium, that the annual demand is 200,840 passengers, and that the daily voyage cost is 0.843 million Yuan.

Peter Lipar, Irena Strnad, Martin Česnik, Tomaž Maher
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4
This paper presents GIS-based methodology for urban area driving cycle construction. The approach reaches beyond the frames of usual driving cycle development methods and takes into account another perspective of data collection. Rather than planning data collection, the approach is based on available in-vehicle measurement data post processing using Geographic Information Systems to manipulate the excessive database and extract only the representative and geographically limited individual trip data. With such data post processing the data was carefully adjusted to include only the data that describe representative driving in Ljubljana urban area. The selected method for the driving cycle development is based on searching for the best microtrips combination while minimizing the difference between two vectors; one based on generated cycle and the other on the database. Accounting for a large random sample of actual trip data, our approach enables more representative area-specific driving cycle development than the previously used techniques.

Tahar Ammar Jouili, Mohamed Anis Allouche
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4

The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of seaports investment on the economic growth. Seaports are seen by many governments as an important factor in the strengthening of the economies. During the last two decades, the Tunisian succeeding governments have been allocating a great amount of money to develop seaport infrastructures. However, the Tunisian economy witnessed fluctuations in the economic growth rates and decrease in the rate of employment during the same period of time. This study used an econometric model by employing the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample was composed of Tunisia's economic sectors (manufacturing, services and agriculture) over the period 1983-2011. The results of the study show that the public investment in seaport infrastructures has a
positive influence on Tunisian economic growth. The study also revealed that the biggest beneficiary from the seaport investment infrastructure is the service sector.

This paper aims to estimate the impact of seaports investment on the economic growth. The seaports are seen by many governments as an important factor in the strengthening of the economies. During the last two decades, the Tunisian succeeding governments were allocating a great amount of money to develop seaports' infrastructures. However, the Tunisian economy witnessed fluctuating in the economic growth rates and decreased in the rate of employment during the same period of time. This study used an econometric model by employing the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample composed of Tunisia's economic sectors (manufacturing, services and agriculture) over the period 1983-2011. The results of the study show that the public investment in seaports' infrastructures has a positive influence on Tunisian economic growth. The study also revealed that the biggest beneficiary from the seaports investment infrastructure is the services sector.


Oscar A. Rosas-Jaimes, Luis Alberto Quezada Téllez, Guillermo Fernández Anaya
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4
Vehicular traffic can be modelled as a dynamic discrete form. As in many dynamic systems, the parameters modelling traffic can produce a number of different trajectories or orbits, and it is possible to depict different flow situations, including chaotic ones. In this paper, an approach to the wellknown density-flow fundamental diagram is suggested, using an analytical polynomial technique, in which coefficients are taken from significant values acting as the parameters of the traffic model. Depending on the values of these parameters, it can be seen how the traffic flow changes from stable endpoints to chaotic trajectories, with proper analysis in their stability features.

Matija Gulić, Ricardo Olivares, Daniel Borrajo
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4

Solving traffic congestions represents a high priority issue in many big cities. Traditional traffic control systems are mainly based on pre-programmed, reactive and local techniques. This paper presents an autonomic system that uses automated planning techniques instead. These techniques are easily configurable and modified, and can reason about the future implications of actions that change the default traffic lights behaviour. The proposed implemented system includes some autonomic properties, since it monitors the current traffic state, detects if the system is degrading its performance, sets up new sets of goals to be achieved by the planner, triggers the planner that generates plans with control actions, and executes the selected courses of actions. The obtained results in several artificial and real world data-based simulation scenarios show that the proposed system can efficiently solve traffic congestion.


Li Linchao, Tomislav Fratrović
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4
Accidents involving large trucks very often end up with deadly consequences. Innocent people getting killed are acknowledged globally as one of the traffic safety greatest problems and challenges. While risk factors on truck-related accidents have been researched extensively, the impact on fatalities has received little or no attention, especially considering rural and urban areas, respectively. In this study, the generalized ordered logit model was used in Stata 11.0 to explore the complex mechanism of truck-related accidents in different areas. Data were obtained from The Trucks in Fatal Accidents database (TIFA). The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) indicates that the model used in this paper is superior to traditional ordered logit model. The results showed that 9 variables affect the vehicle damage level in a fatal crash in both areas but with different directions. Furthermore, 23 indicators significantly affect the disabling damage in the same manner. Also, there are factors that are significant solely in one area and not in the other: 12 in rural and 2 in urban areas.

Dejan Mirčetić, Nebojša Ralević, Svetlana Nikoličić, Marinko Maslarić, Đurđica Stojanović
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4

The paper focuses on the problem of forklifts engagement in warehouse loading operations. Two expert system (ES) models are created using several machine learning (ML) models. Models try to mimic expert decisions while determining the forklifts engagement in the loading operation. Different ML models are evaluated and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and classification and regression trees (CART) are chosen as the ones which have shown best results for the research purpose. As a case study, a central warehouse of a beverage company was used. In a beverage distribution chain, the proper engagement of forklifts in a loading operation is crucial for maintaining the defined customer service level. The created ES models represent a new approach for the rationalization of the forklifts usage, particularly for solving the problem of the forklifts engagement in
cargo loading. They are simple, easy to understand, reliable, and practically applicable tool for deciding on the engagement of the forklifts in a loading operation.


Dragana Šarac, Miloš Kopić, Katarina Mostarac, Momčilo Kujačić, Bojan Jovanović
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4

Most countries of the European Union ensure certain obligations (criteria) which universal service providers must meet to ensure the realization of the universal service. These criteria vary from country to country, giving their own choice of an optimal model for the density of the postal network. Such postal network of the operator providing universal postal service must be organized so that post offices are accessible at the optimal distance from the user. This paper presents two different approaches. The first one is based on the population criteria determined in the previous study. The second one is new, a general method created to determine the minimum number of postal unit applications of Set Covering Location Problem. The authors apply both methods on real data collected from the Serbian municipalities and finally, compare the obtained results.


Draženko Glavić, Miloš Mladenović, Aleksandar Stevanovic, Vladan Tubić, Marina Milenković, Marijo Vidas
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4
Over the last three decades numerous research efforts have been conducted worldwide to determine the relationship between traffic accidents and traffic and road characteristics. So far, the mentioned studies have not been carried out in Serbia and in the region. This paper represents one of the first attempts to develop accident prediction models in Serbia. The paper provides a comprehensive literature review, describes procedures for collection and analysis of the traffic accident data, as well as the methodology used to develop the accident prediction models. The paper presents models obtained by both univariate and multivariate regression analyses. The obtained results are compared to the results of other studies and comparisons are discussed. Finally, the paper presents conclusions and important points for future research. The results of this research can find theoretical as well as practical application.

Tina Perić, Pavao Komadina, Nikola Račić
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4

The global growth of cruise tourism has brought increasing concern for the pollution of the marine environment. Marine pollution from sanitary wastewater is a problem especially pronounced on large cruise ships where the number of people on board may exceed 8,000. To evaluate future marine pollution in any selected period of time it is necessary to know the movement of ships in the Adriatic Sea. This paper presents the problem of marine pollution by sanitary wastewater from cruise ships, wastewater treatment technology and a model of cruise ship traffic in the Adriatic Sea considering MARPOL Annex IV areas of limited wastewater discharge. Using the model, it is possible to know in advance the routes of the cruisers and retention time in certain geographic areas. The data obtained by this model can be used as input parameters for evaluation model of wastewater pollution or for evaluation of other types of pollution from cruise ships.


Siniša Husnjak, Dragan Peraković, Ivan Cvitić
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4
Smartphones are used to access a wide range of different information and communication services and perform functions based on data transfer. A number of subscription contracts for smartphones is rapidly increasing, and the development of mobile communications network provides higher speed of data transfer. The continuous increase in the average amount of data traffic per one subscriber contract leads to an increase in the total Mobile Data Traffic (MDT), globally. This research represents a summary of factors that affect the amount of smartphone MDT. Previous literature shows only a few of the factors individually that affect the realization of smartphone MDT. The results of the research clarify the ways which influence the amount of MDT generated by a smartphone. This paper increases the awareness of the users of the methods of generating smartphone MDT. The research also allows users to specify parameters that affect the prediction of generated MDT of a smartphone.

Chao Lu, Jie Huang, Jianwei Gong
2016 (Vol 28), Issue 4
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been proposed to deal with ramp control problems under dynamic traffic conditions; however, there is a lack of sufficient research on the behaviour and impacts of different learning parameters. This paper describes a ramp control agent based on the RL mechanism and thoroughly analyzed the influence of three learning parameters; namely, learning rate, discount rate and action selection parameter on the algorithm performance. Two indices for the learning speed and convergence stability were used to measure the algorithm performance, based on which a series of simulation-based experiments were designed and conducted by using a macroscopic traffic flow model. Simulation results showed that, compared with the discount rate, the learning rate and action selection parameter made more remarkable impacts on the algorithm performance. Based on the analysis, some suggestions
about how to select suitable parameter values that can achieve a superior performance were provided.


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