This paper deals with the on-going process of commercialisation of air navigation service providers (ANSPs) with specific focus on Europe. First part offers overview of conducted research on their commercialisation and identifies two main external drivers for the emergence of commercialisation – liberalisation of national markets and demand for other ANS related services. Our research also proposes methodology for numerical assessment of the degree of commercialisation based on the ANSP’s Commercialisation Index (ACI) and presents numerical evaluation of the ACI index of 35 European providers and proposes six different categories of providers reflecting different degree of their commercialisation. Results reveal that 63% of the European ANSPs show signs of commercialisation. On top of that, our outcomes prove that corporatisation cannot be considered a direct manifestation of commercialisation. Despite the most widely accepted view that corporatised providers are commercially active, the findings show that almost 40% of corporatised European ANSPs are not commercially active. The paper also claims that ownership of subsidiaries and joint ventures is the most dominant demonstration of commercialisation. At the same time, our outcomes show that the provision and development of commercial services and products related to ANS are the most common commercial activities of the European ANSPs.

The arrival management (AMAN) system is a decision support tool for air traffic controllers to establish and maintain the landing sequence for arrival aircraft. The original intention of designing the AMAN system is to improve the efficiency of air traffic management (ATM), but few studies are investigating the operational benefits of this system based on key performance indicators (KPIs) and evaluating actual data in a real-time environment. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a KPI based transferable comparative analysis method for identifying the operational benefits of the AMAN through radar trajectories. Firstly, six KPIs are established from a joint study of the mainstream ATM performance frameworks worldwide. Secondly, appropriate evaluation technique approaches are determined according to the characteristics of each KPI. Finally, a Chinese metropolitan airport is taken for the case study, and three periods are defined to form data samples with high similarity for comparative experiments. The results validate the feasibility of the proposed method and find comprehensive performance improvements in arrival operations under the effects of the AMAN system.

Traffic collisions affect millions around the world and are the leading cause of death for children and young adults. Thus, Canada’s road safety plan is to reduce collision injuries and fatalities with a vision of making the safest roads in the world. We aim to predict fatalities of collisions on Canadian roads, and to discover causation of fatalities through exploratory data analysis and machine learning techniques. We analyse the vehicle collisions from Canada’s National Collision Database (1999–2017.) Through data mining methodologies, we investigate association rules and key contributing factors that lead to fatalities. Then, we propose two supervised learning classification models, Lasso Regression and XGBoost, to predict fatalities. Our analysis shows the deadliness of head-on collisions, especially in non-intersection areas with lacking traffic control systems. We also reveal that most collision fatalities occur in non-extreme weather and road conditions. Our prediction models show that the best classifier of fatalities is XGBoost with 83% accuracy. Its most important features are “collision configuration” and “used safety devices” elements, outnumbering attributes such as vehicle year, collision time, age, or sex of the individual. Our exploratory and predictive analysis reveal the importance of road design and traffic safety education.

Due to the congested scenarios of the urban railway system during peak hours, passengers are often left behind on the platform. This paper firstly brings a proposal to capture passengers matching different trains. Secondly, to reduce passengers’ total waiting time, timetable optimisation is put forward based on passengers matching different trains. This is a two-stage model. In the first stage, the aim is to obtain a match between passengers and different trains from the Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data as well as timetable parameters. In the second stage, the objective is to reduce passengers’ total waiting time, whereby the decision variables are headway and dwelling time. Due to the complexity of our proposed model, an MCMC-GASA (Markov Chain Monte Carlo-Genetic Algorithm Simulated Annealing) hybrid method is designed to solve it. A real-world case of Line 1 in Beijing metro is employed to verify the proposed two-stage model and algorithms. The results show that several improvements have been brought by the newly designed timetable. The number of unique matching passengers increased by 37.7%, and passengers’ total waiting time decreased by 15.5%.

Railway infrastructures and services in the countries of former Yugoslavia have been in a downward spiral since the early 1990s. There have been scattered investments to lift services up to appealing levels after the war, but a continuous downward trend persists in all important performance indicators. After war-attributed abandonment, numerous lines lost services permanently, numbers of services dwindled, especially across borders, and service speeds decreased. This research takes Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina specifically as survey objects. It aims to identify the barriers in these two countries that withheld passenger rail from a positive development as in other European countries during the same period. For this purpose we carried out 11 interviews with stakeholders in various railway-related institutions. The transcripts are analysed qualitatively with thematic analysis to gain an overview of organisational and institutional barriers for development of railways. This is followed by a cause-effect analysis with Causal Loop Diagramming. The result: ad-hoc decision-making is clearly connected to the insignificance of railways. As immediate measures to counter the downward spiral by means of strategic long term planning, we identify (1) service benchmarking, (2) a clear vision for improvement of service quality, and (3) empowerment of ministries in a long term.

The aim of this paper is to conduct a spatial correlation study of virus transmission in the Hubei province, China. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases released by the National Health and Construction Commission, the traffic flow data provided by Baidu migration, and the current situation of Wuhan intercity traffic were collected. The Moran’s I test shows that there is a positive spatial correlation between the 17 cities in the Hubei province. The result of Moran’s I test also shows that four different policies to restrict inter-city traffic can be issued for the four types of cities. The ordinary least squares regression, spatial lag model, spatial error model, and spatial lag error model were built. Based on the analysis of the spatial lag error model, whose goodness of fit is the highest among the four models, it can be concluded that the speed of COVID-19 spread within a certain region is not only related to the current infection itself but also associated with the scale of the infection in the surrounding area. Thus, the spill-over effect of the COVID-19 is also presented. This paper bridges inter-city traffic and spatial economics, provides a theoretical contribution, and verifies the necessity of a lockdown from an empirical point of view.

A new statistical algorithm is proposed in this paper with the aim of estimating fundamental diagram (FD) in actual traffic and dividing the traffic state. Traditional methods mainly focus on sensor data, but this paper takes random probe pairs as research objects. First, a mathematical method is proposed by using probe pairs data and the jam density to determine the FD on a stationary segment. Second, we applied it to the near-stationary probe traffic state set through linear regression and expectation maximisation iterative algorithm, estimating the free flow speed and the backward wave speed and dividing the traffic state based on the 95% confidence interval of the estimated FD. Finally, simulation and empirical analyses are used to verify the new algorithm. The simulation analysis results show that the estimation error corresponding to the free flow speed and the backward wave speed are 1.0668 km/h and 0.0002 km/h respectively. The empirical analysis calculates the maximum capacity of the road and divides the traffic into three states (free flow state, breakdown state, and congested state), which demonstrates the accuracy and practicability of the research in this paper, and provides a reference for urban traffic monitoring and government decision-making.

For the purpose of reducing the harm of expressway traffic accidents and improving the accuracy of traffic accident black spots identification, this paper proposes a method for black spots identification of expressway accidents based on road unit secondary division and empirical Bayes method. Based on the modelling ideas of expressway accident prediction models in HSM (Highway Safety Manual), an expressway accident prediction model is established as a prior distribution and combined with empirical Bayes method safety estimation to obtain a Bayes posterior estimate. The posterior estimated value is substituted into the quality control method to obtain the black spots identification threshold. Finally, combining the Xi'an-Baoji expressway related data and using the method proposed in this paper, a case study of Xibao Expressway is carried out, and sections 9, 19, and 25 of Xibao Expressway are identified as black spots. The results show that the method of secondary segmentation based on dynamic clustering can objectively describe the concentration and dispersion of accident spots on the expressway, and the proposed black point recognition method based on empirical Bayes method can accurately identify accident black spots. The research results of this paper can provide a basis for decision-making of expressway management departments, take targeted safety improvement measures.

The ability to predict the motion of vehicles is essential for autonomous vehicles. Aiming at the problem that existing models cannot make full use of the external parameters including the outline of vehicles and the lane, we proposed a model to use the external parameters thoroughly when predicting the trajectory in the straight-line and non-free flow state. Meanwhile, dynamic sensitive area is proposed to filter out inconsequential surrounding vehicles. The historical trajectory of the vehicles and their external parameters are used as inputs. A shared Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cell is proposed to encode the explicit states obtained by mapping historical trajectory and external parameters. The hidden states of vehicles obtained from the last step are used to extract latent driving intent. Then, a convolution layer is designed to fuse hidden states to feed into the next prediction circle and a decoder is used to decode the hidden states of the vehicles to predict trajectory. The experiment result shows that the dynamic sensitive area can shorten the training time to 75.86% of the state-of-the-art work. Compared with other models, the accuracy of our model is improved by 23.7%. Meanwhile, the model's ability of anti-interference of external parameters is also improved.

The seasonal domestic yacht traffic direction in Turkey from the Marmara Sea and South coasts of Turkey at the beginning of the Summer and opposite direction at the end of the Summer or beginning of the Autumn. Considering the long-distance and long sailing time between the routes of seasonal yacht moving, this study revealed whether the yacht carrying in domestic shipping can be feasible for yacht owners and ship owners. The technical and managing perspective of port and ship selection criteria are indicated for yacht carrying. Estimations are done for the selected sample ship and yacht model and selected loading/discharging ports. All of the voyage expenses are formulated and written in MatLab. The voyage costs of the sample ship and  yacht model are estimated to evaluate the feasibility of yacht carrying between the Bodrum and Haydarpaşa Port. The cost of a yacht carrying between the ports is  acceptable depends on the number of yachts, speed of yacht and yacht type carried. The long coastline and yacht traffic potential of Turkey  give the opportunity of effectiveness for shipping of yachts in the domestic line.

Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) have the ability to receive information on their leading vehicles through multiple sensors and vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) technology and then predict their future behaviour thus to improve roadway safety and mobility. This study presents an innovative algorithm for connected and autonomous vehicles to determine their trajectory considering surrounding vehicles. For the first time, the XGBoost model is developed to predict the acceleration rate that the object vehicle should take based on the current status of both the object vehicle and its leading vehicle. Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) datasets are utilised for training the proposed model. The XGBoost model is compared with the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM), which is a prior state-of-the-art model. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) are applied to evaluate the two models. The results show that the XGBoost model outperforms the IDM in terms of prediction errors. The analysis of the feature importance reveals that the longitudinal position has the greatest influence on vehicle trajectory prediction results.

The limited driving range and the unavailability or insufficiency of battery charging/swapping stations cause the so-called range anxiety issue for traffic assignment involving battery electric vehicle (BEV) users. In addition, expected utility theory-based stochastic user equilibrium (EUT-SUE) model generates the perfectly rational issue when the travellers make route choice decisions. To tackle these two problems, this article improves the cumulative prospect theory-based stochastic user equilibrium (CPT-SUE) model in a degradable transport network through incorporating the constraints of multiple user classes and distance limit. In this degradable network, the travellers experience stochastic travel times due to network link capacity degradations. For this improved CPT-SUE model, the equivalent variational inequality (VI) model and associated method of successive averages (MSA) based solution are provided. The improved CPT-SUE model is tested and compared with the EUT-SUE model with distance limit, with results showing that the improved CPT-SUE model can handle jointly the range anxiety issue and the perfectly rational issue.