Abstract

Traffic crashes in Colombia have become a public health problem causing about 7,000 deaths and 45,000 severe injuries per year. Around 40% of these events occur on rural roads, taking note that the vulnerable users (pedestrians, motorcyclists, cyclists) account for the largest percentage of the victims. The objective of this research is to identify the factors that influence the frequency of crashes, including the singular orography of the country. For this purpose, we estimated Negative Binomial (Poisson-gamma) regression, Zero-inflated model, and generalized the linear mixed model, thus developing a comparative analysis of results in the Colombian context. The data used in the study came from the official sources regarding records about crashes with consequences; that is, with the occurrence of fatalities or injuries on the Colombian roads. For collecting the highway characteristics, an in-field inventory was conducted, gathering information about both infrastructure and operational parameters in more than three thousand kilometres of the national network. The events were geo-referenced, with registries of vehicles, involved victims, and their condition. The results suggest that highways in flat terrain have higher crash frequency than highways in rolling or mountainous terrain. Besides, the presence of pedestrians, the existence of a median and the density of intersections per kilometre also increase the probability of crashes. Meanwhile, roads with shoulders and wide lanes have lower crash frequency. Specific interventions in the infrastructure and control for reducing crashes risk attending the modelling results have been suggested.

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